Re: Fw: AGA 2004

["S. Hieber" <shieber@yahoo.com>]

--- Erik Olson <erik@thekrib.com> wrote:
> That's what worries me.  One of the reasons Texas worked
> so well was that 
> they didn't rely on having 110 people.  They made it
> break even 
> (theoretically, at least) with a lot fewer.
> 
> Ghazanfar is very bright, but there are some things that
> cannot be 
> predicted.  We don't really know how much of a draw the
> Amano name 
> actually is.  We know it's good, but how good?  Enough to
> guarantee 200 
> people?  

Ghanzafar has that in his favor over Texas -- much more of
the population can get to  WDC than Texas without flying.

I dont know that he's going to require 200 to breakeven --
good gosh, I hope he doesn't budget that optimistically! 
DFWAPC expected at least 80 right form the start. They
budgeted for a break even of 40 because they thought that
was how many paid the year before. Ghanzafar might be wise
to plan on about 80-100 provided he has a really kick-as-
speaker lineup and all the other things 2003 had going fo
it. 

It will be harder for him that DFWAPC; last I heard, he's
aiming for a breakeven and hoping for high attendance. 
DFWAPC was hoping for a postive return and breakeven as an
absolute worst result. For DFWAPC, pricing was a means to
optimize the likelihood of the positive net return (so it
involved attendance and marginal return).  For Ghanzafar,
he might be using pricing mainly as a means towards
attendance goals. But a financial goal of some kind or the
need for one is going to be lurking in the background, no?

Let's find out what Ghanzafar is planning before we
virtually commit to anything. I don't think he'd be against
providing us something. I think he has the basics worked
out already.

sh

=====
S. Hieber

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