Re: [AGA SC] marriot sheraton comparsions - yikes!

["S. Hieber" <shieber@yahoo.com>]

Yes. We need a record turnout just to keep even.

I ran numbers all the way to 270 only because it was the
roomnight requirement in the Marriot offer and I wanted to
see if the Marriot would break even by then or what. It
does, but like I said, this wasn't a probability analysis
-- just a straight numbers crunch. I didn't go lower than
100 roomnights because, well, at these prices, what would
be the point.

The Marriot is unthinkable at 270 roomnights. Rick wants to
counter with 200 roomnights, so I ran those numbers. It
then looks like it gets close to 160 for breakeven but when
the lower number of roomnights is proposed to Marriot, I
suspect something else will be lost in trade. Rick got the
Marriot this far by threatening to walk and take the
Sheraton deal.

And keep in mind that there are some wild cards in the
convention budget, so I'd like to see a grand or two of
slack -- but I don't think we're going to get it.

The GWAPA folks are enamored with the Marriot -- well, they
think it's nicer and I'm sure it is. But I doubt they ran
any numbers to see what niceties cost. I'm hoping the
summary will give them pause.

I had a lot of confidence last year that we'd do well. This
year could be really really goood or just suck. It's going
to be a roller coaster for a while longer.

sh
--- Erik Olson <erik@thekrib.com> wrote:
> So summarizing Scott's summary, it lookg like we need to
> get around 125
> people just to break even with the Sheraton, and around
> 200 people to 
> break even with the Marriott.
> 
> One word: Yikes!
> 
> I don't know how optimistic you guys are, but I for one
> am damn worried
> that they'd be able to pull off a 200-person convention. 
> I *guess* the
> Sharaton one is doable.  And it seems like it's going to
> be cheaper for
> folks, so more would be enticed to come.
> 
>   - Erik
> 
> -- 
> Erik Olson
> erik at thekrib dot com
> 
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=====
S. Hieber

-  -   -   -   -   -   -   -
Amano Returns
to the AGA Annual Convention
Nov 2004 -- Baltimore

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