Re: RE The really big issue with AGA2K4

["Karen Randall" <krandall@rdrcpa.biz>]

> I see it this way. If it snows, we're screwed. Some years
> it never snows in DC and when it does 5" drives them all
> crazy. IF there is a blizzard, we might have to cancel.

I doubt it would make sense to cancel under any circumstances.
Even in mid-winter, a big airport like BWI rarely closes for more than 24
hours, even for a snow storm.  Amano will be there several days before, I
suspect that most speakers and many attendees will be there no later than
Thursday night because of the field trip.  If a snow storm happened on
Wednesday, Amano would be delayed, but here in plenty of time.  If it
happened Thursday, people might miss the field trip, bu they'd be there for
the main events. If it happened Friday, most everyone would be on the ground
anyway.  We'd have to arrange something impromptu, but we'd still have fun.
Even if some of the speakers never made it at all, there are enough
"potential speakers" in the crowd, that you just fill in from whoever is on
hand.  If they're REALLY worried as it gets close to convention time, have
some of us who have programs "in the can" bring them along as "stand by"
material.

> Then we are out whatever the roomnight guarantee to the
> hotel is -- at 100 roomnights that's about $9 grand!

I think a terrorist attack is a more likely problem than a snowstorm that
far south in early-mid November. (and I don't think that's likely either,
for the record)  Even up here we rarely have any significant snow before
Thanksgiving.  Last year was the first time in my adult life for sure, and I
really don't remember any from when I was a kid either.  I'm not saying it
COULDN'T happen... we had a MAJOR snowstorm in mid-May once.  But it's
unlikely in the extreme.

I would hope there would be a sliding clause on the room-night guarantee
(i.e. meet 50% of the guaranteed number, and the fee is $X, meet 75% of the
guaranteed room nights and the fee is $X... Even if there isn't, if we ended
with 50 room-nights (which would be a low estimate based on just the
organizers, BOD and speakers making it) that brings the loss of guaranteed
room nights down it $4500.  Bad, but much less scary than $9000.  We're not
going to return registrations in the event of a snow storm, so that money
stays.

> I fine tuned the model a little bit last night to include
> roomnight guarantees -- if we charge a reg fee of $69, we
> need about 75 to break even. With a reg fee of $49 we need
> about 95 tyo break even.  But I think we'll easily get more
> than 95 -- unless it snows - and then it won't matter what
> we charged, we'll in for about $9 grand. So I'm thinking we
> should keep the fee low and try ti keepthe attendance as
> high as possible.
>
> The only way AGA is going to become financilally sound is
> if the membership substantially increase and getting a few
> thousand dollars from a convention doesn't do much. I think
> we're better off with a moderate convention costs to
> patrons, getting the broader exposure, more word of mouth,
> and ultimately bigger membership in AGA.

I agree with that.  Particularly if we pull in a large local contingent who
are not currently AGA members, and they must become memebers to attend.
Once they are members, if they have any real interest in planted tanks, I
think the magazine sells itself.   Besides, if the registration fee is as
low as possible, it becomes obvious that the added cost is due to the hotel
and location, and it's not that the AGA is trying to rip people off.

Karen


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