Re: [AGA SC] Whoa Nelly. Stop the Presses Check your Chads

[Erik Olson <erik@thekrib.com>]

OK, this works for me.  I vote yes. 

On Thu, 11 Mar 2004, S. Hieber wrote:

> Well, this is a message I really wish I did not have to
> write, especially to an archive. I don't mind being a
> poster boy for imperfection but I screwed up - stripped the
> threads, broke of the head off the screw, and snapped the
> blade of the screw driver. All I did was leave out a single
> pair of parentheses in a nested formula concerning the
> "penalty" fees in the Marriot deal if we do reach the
> minimum number of banquets. Oh, poop!
> 
> The error affects the Marriot results if we have less than
> 120 banquets and only significantly effects the results
> below breakeven for the Marriot deal. The correction raises
> the breakeven from about 95 paid registrants to 108. But
> the more significant effect is that the downside is much
> worse below breakeven - much closer to the Sheraton deal
> and instead of better than the Sheraton deal below
> breakeven, the Marriot deal is worse. 
> 
> A comparison is in the attached spreadsheet. On the left is
> the Sheraton deal using a stepped Reg fee of $49 for the
> first 50 and $59 thereafter and a Banquet fee of $35. In
> the middle is the Marriot deal using the same Reg fee but
> charging attendees $39 for the Banquet (the hotel charges
> $50). On the right, just for comparison, is a higher Reg
> fee ($59|$69) under the Marriot deal showing what it would
> take to bring the results up to those estimated for the
> Sheraton deal. Of course, we could always charge more for
> Reg at the Sheraton, too. 
> 
> I included a chart to show the general relationships but
> look at the *numbers* to understand the magnitudes.
> 
> The table of numbers includes "Subjective Assessments" of
> the results - nonsense I threw in so I'd stop swearing.
> 
> ?GWAPA? has considered the implications and still favors
> Marriot for the reasons previously mentioned (briefly,
> quality, competence, and capacity). I won't reitereate the
> all the pros and cons, but if you want a list let me know.
> 
> Anecdote: The Sheraton only contains 201 rooms (only 40
> doubles) while the Marriot is much larger (700) and more
> likely to have rooms available to accommodate a group up
> around 200 to 250. When Rick brought this up with Sheraton,
> they said it won?t be a problem because they hardly rent
> any rooms that time of year. (I reserve comment until
> later.) 
> 
> Motions anyone?
> 
> Personal opinion [no facts here folks]: I think these
> Sheraton folks have consistently impressed us with a
> certain lack of competence as hoteliers. I suspect they are
> more likely to mess up the reservations, not have the right
> rooms available at the right time, incorrectly charge
> bills, etc. And they have been smarmy negotiators -- See?
> Now my comments are unreserved. The Marriot has been tough,
> but they never said "yes," then turned around and said
> "Oops, we mean no." When push comes to shove, I think the
> Sheraton is more likely to be like, say, the Houston
> Hilton.
> 
> Purely on financial grounds, it's hard to refuse the
> Sheraton. It appears to be a slightly better deal at any
> attenandance level below roughly 200-250, which is probably
> where their capacity maxes out. Although the difference,
> imo, is less than the margin of uncertainty of the budget
> (easily give or take a thou or two), the Sheraton on paper
> is pretty consistently a bit better. Otoh, either deal is
> very likely to make good money. 
> 
> So with much ambivalence I reaffirm my support for the
> Marriot but urge everyone to reconsider but not necessarily
> recast their vote.
> 
> sh
> 
> 
> =====
> S. Hieber
> 
> -  -   -   -   -   -   -   -
> Amano Returns
> to the AGA Annual Convention
> Nov 12, 13 & 14, 2004 -- Crystal City, Virginia
> 
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-- 
Erik Olson
erik at thekrib dot com

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