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[AGA SC] Whoa Nelly. Stop the Presses Check your Chads



Well, this is a message I really wish I did not have to
write, especially to an archive. I don't mind being a
poster boy for imperfection but I screwed up - stripped the
threads, broke of the head off the screw, and snapped the
blade of the screw driver. All I did was leave out a single
pair of parentheses in a nested formula concerning the
"penalty" fees in the Marriot deal if we do reach the
minimum number of banquets. Oh, poop!

The error affects the Marriot results if we have less than
120 banquets and only significantly effects the results
below breakeven for the Marriot deal. The correction raises
the breakeven from about 95 paid registrants to 108. But
the more significant effect is that the downside is much
worse below breakeven - much closer to the Sheraton deal
and instead of better than the Sheraton deal below
breakeven, the Marriot deal is worse. 

A comparison is in the attached spreadsheet. On the left is
the Sheraton deal using a stepped Reg fee of $49 for the
first 50 and $59 thereafter and a Banquet fee of $35. In
the middle is the Marriot deal using the same Reg fee but
charging attendees $39 for the Banquet (the hotel charges
$50). On the right, just for comparison, is a higher Reg
fee ($59|$69) under the Marriot deal showing what it would
take to bring the results up to those estimated for the
Sheraton deal. Of course, we could always charge more for
Reg at the Sheraton, too. 

I included a chart to show the general relationships but
look at the *numbers* to understand the magnitudes.

The table of numbers includes "Subjective Assessments" of
the results - nonsense I threw in so I'd stop swearing.

?GWAPA? has considered the implications and still favors
Marriot for the reasons previously mentioned (briefly,
quality, competence, and capacity). I won't reitereate the
all the pros and cons, but if you want a list let me know.

Anecdote: The Sheraton only contains 201 rooms (only 40
doubles) while the Marriot is much larger (700) and more
likely to have rooms available to accommodate a group up
around 200 to 250. When Rick brought this up with Sheraton,
they said it won?t be a problem because they hardly rent
any rooms that time of year. (I reserve comment until
later.) 

Motions anyone?

Personal opinion [no facts here folks]: I think these
Sheraton folks have consistently impressed us with a
certain lack of competence as hoteliers. I suspect they are
more likely to mess up the reservations, not have the right
rooms available at the right time, incorrectly charge
bills, etc. And they have been smarmy negotiators -- See?
Now my comments are unreserved. The Marriot has been tough,
but they never said "yes," then turned around and said
"Oops, we mean no." When push comes to shove, I think the
Sheraton is more likely to be like, say, the Houston
Hilton.

Purely on financial grounds, it's hard to refuse the
Sheraton. It appears to be a slightly better deal at any
attenandance level below roughly 200-250, which is probably
where their capacity maxes out. Although the difference,
imo, is less than the margin of uncertainty of the budget
(easily give or take a thou or two), the Sheraton on paper
is pretty consistently a bit better. Otoh, either deal is
very likely to make good money. 

So with much ambivalence I reaffirm my support for the
Marriot but urge everyone to reconsider but not necessarily
recast their vote.

sh


=====
S. Hieber

-  -   -   -   -   -   -   -
Amano Returns
to the AGA Annual Convention
Nov 12, 13 & 14, 2004 -- Crystal City, Virginia

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Attachment: Sheraton Marriot comparison 5c.xls
Description: Sheraton Marriot comparison 5c.xls